RedraftHero NFL Week 3 Top & Value Plays

September 24, 2015 | Category: NFL

Week 3 Top Plays and Value Plays

By: John Heffelfinger


Top Play

Tom Brady ($8300) – The only worry that I have here is whether the Patriots will be blowing out the Jaguars, but they will have to score the points to be blowing them out. Brady is actually at a very affordable salary on RDH at $8300 and he has just been crushing it so far this year. He has 7 touchdowns this year and roughly 755 yards, and 466 of those and 3 TD’s came against a very good Bills defense. The Jags to their credit have only given up 20 points in both games so far this year, but that was against the Dolphins and Panthers neither of which have a great passing attack. Then you factor in that the Jags allowed 250 passing yards a game to Newton and Tannehill, one can only imagine what Brady will do to them. If you’re going to spend big on QB, I highly suggest Brady as he is about a safe a play as you will find.

HOUSTON, TX - DECEMBER 01:  Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots waits near the bench during the first half of the game against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium on December 1, 2013 in Houston, Texas.  (Photo by Scott Halleran/Getty Images)

Value Play

Josh McCown ($5900) – I am not just picking McCown because he is dirt cheap, but that certainly does not hurt my decision to pick him. He has a great matchup against the Raiders who have allowed 653 yards in 2 games (326.5 per game), and have given up 118 yards per game on the ground. Now I do worry about him taking one big hit and suffering another concussion, but I doubt we’ll be seeing him dive for the endzone again anytime soon. They seem to have a legitimate deep threat in Travis Benjamin now, they have a very versatile back in Duke Johnson who can catch out of the backfield, and a guy like Andrew Hawkins who can be very dependable. I honestly think the Browns will be losing this game as well as the Raiders have a legitimate passing attack now with Carr, Cooper, and Crabtree which will help McCown get some of that garbage time which is what everyone is looking for. It will likely be Manziel before long, but look for Josh to be well worth his money on Sunday.


Top Play

Adrian Peterson ($9000) – If Peterson didn’t fumble on the goal line last week, he would have had a monster game, and I expect him to have another good game this weekend against the Chargers. Last week he had 29 carries for 134 yards and 2 catches for 58 yards which was an obvious attempt at getting him the ball a lot more often. The Chargers have allowed 244 rushing yards through the first two games which is 21st in the NFL so this happens to be a pretty good matchup for him (Peterson went off for 298 against them years ago). Norv Turner has said that he wants to get Peterson more involved in the passing game which certainly helps his fantasy value (only 5 in the first two games). Teddy hasn’t really been attacking down the field, and with a game I believe the Vikings will be winnings, I expect close to 30 carries for Peterson again. Whether it’s out of the shotgun, or in the single back set, I believe Adrian can succeed from any formation, and he will show that again this Sunday.

Value Play

Jonathon Stewart ($6800) – Stewart has been very quiet so far this year amassing 118 yards over the first two games with 5 total catches and 0 touchdowns. For that exact reason, I love him as a tournament play this weekend because I don’t think very many people will pick him. He is going against a Saints defense that has allowed 259 yards on the ground which is 24th most in the NFL, and has also allowed 501 passing yards which should allow Stewart and the Panthers to get into the redzone quite often. There is no real competition for Stewart so it is a little surprising he only has 35 carries, but Cam Newton has 68 passing attempts which has cut down on his production. Again, I expect the Panthers to be winning this game which should mean a heavy dose of Stewart late, and odds are he is simply due for a touchdown here. I don’t mind Cam Newton at all either at QB, but Stewart is so cheap and has such a good matchup that he will be hard to pass on.

Wide Receiver

Top Play

Julio Jones ($8800) – He’s listed as “Questionable” for the game, but there really is no doubt that he will indeed play in the game. As I stated in my fantasy rankings before the season, Jones I think is the best fantasy receiver if he is healthy. Jones has 22 receptions in 2 games which shows me that Matt Ryan is specifically targeting him several times per game. He is going against Dallas who have actually only given up 409 passing yards in two games which is 9th best in the NFL, but they can thank Sam Bradford and the Eagles poor offense for that. I certainly do not trust Brandon Carr or Morris Claiborne to be guarding Jones over the course of the game, and I have a hard time seeing the Dallas offense being on the field much without Romo or Bryant. I think the Falcons will actually be winning this game which hurts Jones overall value, but I think he will do enough early to make up for them running it late. You can’t really go wrong with any of the top WR’s, but if you can only pick one this week, I would learn towards Julio.

julio jones

Value Play

Terrance Williams ($6300) – Same game, different team, I really like Terrance Williams as he is now their number 1 target to throw to. There is a slight problem as Desmond Trufant may be guarding him, and Trufant happens to be one of the best cornerbacks in football. The other more obvious problem is that Brandon Weeden will be slinging the ball which may be a problem for all of the Dallas receivers. However, the two of them hooked up for a touchdown last week, and honestly Jason Witten is banged up and Cole Beasley is the only other decent receiver they have (Gavin Escobar is okay). Atlanta has allowed 627 passing yards so far so even with Trufant, they still lack a pass rush which is the most important thing and will allow a guy like Williams to get open. I really like him as a tournament player because he can strike for a lot of long catches (16.7 yards per catch in his career), but has never been a big possession receiver (90 catches in 34 games). It will be interesting to see what this Dallas offense does, but with them losing late they will no option but to pass.

Tight End

Top Play

Rob Gronkowski ($8400)– I mean I am really not breaking any news here, but Gronkowski is a beast, and there is no other tight end that is relatively close to him. Tyler Eifert has had an unreal start to the year, and even he is not doing as good as Gronk is. In two games he has 12 catches for 207 yards and 4 touchdowns. As people say, he is the ultimate mismatch so while teams will try their best to stop him, they simply can’t, and I can’t imagine the Jaguars will be slowing him down all too much. Through 2 games, the Jags have allowed 8 points per game to TE’s (FantasyData.com), which is 16th best in the NFL which isn’t as bad as I thought but still not good. He might be expensive, but he honestly has a very high floor and a very high ceiling. While I like Travis Kelce for $6400, he just isn’t nearly as safe of a pick as Gronk. I honestly expect a multi touchdown game here, and the hot streak for the Pats to continue.

Value Play

Jared Cook ($5200) – I honestly don’t know what to think of the Rams offense, but I like the passing attack of the Rams this week as I don’t like the Steelers linebackers in coverage nor their secondary. Now the data is a bit skewed since Gronk destroyed them, but the Steelers are allowing 20.90 points per game to tight ends which is the 2nd worst in the NFL. Cook has been pretty solid so far this year with 10 catches for 132 yards and 0 TD’s which isn’t amazing but again is certainly decent for the price. I expect the Steelers to be winning this game which means the Rams will have to abandon the run game (I think Gurley will be playing along with Tre Mason) and there is just no WR’s that I can see Foles targeting more than Cook (Quick Bailey Austin????). He’s not a sexy name nor a guy I would really target for cash games, but I can easily see him getting a garbage time touchdown against the Steelers.


Value Plays

Brandon McManus ($4000) – I know that he gets a big boost by playing in Denver, but I think that he has a boot and can hit long FG’s no matter where they are playing. This week they are playing at Detroit which means he will be playing in a dome which certainly helps the cause not having to deal with the wind. He is the minimum price which will allow you to spend big on other positions and plays in an offense that generally moves the ball down the field. With Manning struggling a little big, I expect some more FG’s this year with the execution not being there offensively and the Lions have given up 8.5 points per game to kickers which is 11th most in the NFL. Honestly I wouldn’t go any other way here as he is a great kicker at a great price.

Atlanta ($4100) – I normally hate the Falcons defense and while I have Terrance Williams on this list, I really don’t like Brandon Weeden at all. I think the Cowboys will run a lot early, but I expect the Falcons to counter that by loading 8 guys in the box and making Weeden beat them. I don’t think there will be a bunch of sacks from the Falcons, but I could very easily see a pick six or at worst a couple Ints, with minimal points allowed and a sack or two mixed in. I don’t like spending a lot of money on these two positions which is why I like these two guys and in tournaments or cash games I think they are definitely playable.

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