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Daily Domer

May 26, 2015 | Category: MLB

By: John Heffelfinger

Pitchers

Stud

Jacob DeGrom – For the money today, I think DeGrom is going to be the best bang for his buck and is a safe play for cash games. He is coming off his best start of the year where he had 8 IP 11 K’s O ER and got the win. Now while I don’t expect him to keep that same stat line game in and game out; pitching against the Phillies tonight should give him a great opportunity to match it. As stated in previous articles, the Phillies don’t strike out a ton (328 times which is 21st most). However, their offense overall is extremely poor and should allow for him to pitch deep into the game. They have a 1.4 WAR (Wins above Replacement) which is 3rd worst in the MLB so according to advanced stats they have roughly the third worst overall offense. They are batting .240 which is 24th in the MLB and have 149 runs which is 29th in the MLB. Getting back to DeGrom, he has 54 K’s in 55 IP, a 2.75 ERA, and 5 wins already this year. The only down side I see to him is that he has failed to go 6 innings 3 times this year, but like I said, the Phillies don’t get a lot of hits and DeGrom does not walk a lot of people (13 BB’s in 55 IP). These two factors lead me to believe that he will be able to pitch deeper into the game. The Mets are also at-200 on the moneyline today which gives them the second highest odds of winning today. Taking that into account along with the stats above, DeGrom should be the one of the best plays for cash games, and will allow you to save a little money compared to the other top guys.

Clayton Kershaw  – Thank goodness he is not pitching against Madison Bumgarner for a while and can hopefully get back on track here. He is more likely than not going to be the most expensive pitcher tonight, but his price is much more affordable than it was at the beginning of the year. One of the main problems for him this year to go along with his bad luck, is his inability to pick up the W’s. He only has two so far this year, and for his price tag you really need those extra points. He still has 73 K’s in 58 IP and has only pitched less than 6 innings once this year. He has also struck out at least 7 guys in 7 of his starts this year. Then we take into account the matchup against the Braves. They have been pretty poor against lefties this year having a .232 BA/.293 OBP/.320 SLG line. These stats are all lower than they are against righties. The only reason for concern is that the Braves don’t strike out much (2nd least with 281 K’s). This is misleading though because they strikeout at roughly a 24% clip against lefties while only 18% against righties.  Vegas has them as the best odds to win tonight at -240 which also gives me confidence. Teheran is a pretty good pitcher, but with a good matchup for Kershaw I see him finally hitting a big night and will be worth the money.

Value

Alex Colome – A much cheaper option than the 3 above, he of course comes with much more risk, but allows you to save some money for the GPP lineups. The Mariners do not hit righties very good having a .232 AVG/.294 OBP/.390 SLG against them. The Mariners also have struck out 336 times which is 16th in the MLB. Then we have Colome who has an okay ERA at 4.81 for what his price is. He also has 19 K’s in 24 IP so he is capable of getting some points in that way. The big risk with him is that he has only pitched more than 5 innings once so that kind of limits the upside. He is prone to giving up some hits 928 in 24 IP), but rarely walks guys (only 3 all year). If he can keep the pitch count down and pitch 6 innings, I expect him to get some strikeouts and for him to get some run support with J.A. Happ pitching. He isn’t safe by any means but if you are looking to stack some high priced hitters he could be the way to go.

Catchers

Stud

Buster Posey  – Posey has really picked it up here the last few weeks and is looking like the elite catcher we all know. Tonight he is going against Matt Garza who has really struggled this year with a 5.71 ERA and 55 hits and 24 walks allowed in 52 IP. Then we take into account Posey’s mashing stats against righties, posting a line of .319 AVG/.395 OBP/.471 SLG. He doesn’t really pitch any better to lefties or righties as both are averaging about a .345 BA against Garza, so there should be plenty of RBI opportunities for Posey tonight which make him a stud.

Value

Miguel Montero – I really like Montero tonight at an affordable price point. I know he is going against one of the more expensive pitchers in Jordan Zimmerman tonight, but he has really struggled overall this year. I like the fact that he is hitting 5th which is pretty solid for a catcher. Against righties this year he has a line of .261 AVG/.384 OBP/.435 SLG.  Take this with the fact that the wind I hear is blowing at 20 MPH to straight away center which could lead to more HR’s being hit. Montero also hits better at home rocking a .421 OBP so I’d say he’s a solid play for both GPP’s and cash games.

First Base

Stud

Edwin Encarnacion – This is going to be a theme here at several positions, but I like a lot of the Blue Jays tonight going against John Danks. Against lefties Edwin has a line of .290 AVG/.378 OBP/.419 SLG. His power seems to come against righties (11 HR and a higher SLG% vs. only 1 HR against lefties), but he seems to get on base at a much higher clip against lefties. Then take into account John Danks really struggles against righties with a line of .300 BA/.359 OBP/.567 SLG. He has given up 7 HR in 120 AB to righties, so even if Encarnacion has more power against lefties, I still see this as a favorable matchup for him.

Value

Pedro Alvarez – There could be some rain later on in the night so it is a little risky, but I like Alvarez none the less tonight. Alvarez can’t hit lefties, but against righties he is hitting with a .267 AVG/.356 OBP/.552 SLG. Tonight, he is going against one of the cheapest players on the slate in Jose Urena who has only 3 IP in the majors this year giving up 3 ER. He also doesn’t really strike out guys (22 K’s in 35 IP in the minors) which plays into Alvarez even more. He may only be batting 6th in the order tonight, but with such a good line against righties, and a lower level pitcher there is a lot to like

Second Base

Stud

Dee Gordon – The only thing I don’t like about Gordon tonight is the rain that could come there later tonight. Gordon may be a lefty, but he still hits lefties pretty well (.366 AVG/ .381 OBP/.415 SLG). He bats leadoff and steals a ton of bases (18/25) this year so far, so even with his lack of power he still brings a lot to the table. Then he is going against Jeff Locke who is a lefty, but lefties actually hit better against Locke than righties. With a .324 AVG/.378 OBP/.559 SLG against lefties, this won’t scare me away from the lefty on lefty matchup at all. He is a higher priced second basemen, but the points are there for the taking tonight and I think he will get them.

Value

Daniel Murphy – I picked him yesterday, and I am going to pick him again today. Murphy is the platoon guy who hits against righties and does so fairly well (.285 AVG/.336 OBP/.431 SLG). The main reason I like him is because of his matchup against Jerome Williams. Lefties have a batting average of .307 against him and get on base at a .366 clip. With lefties Granderson and Duda hitting in front of Murphy who is in the cleanup hole, he also should have RBI opportunities tonight. He might not hit the homeruns either, but he gets on base a good amount and has a great matchup tonight.

Shortstops

Stud

Brandon Crawford – As seen earlier, Matt Garza has really struggled this year having a high batting average against, and letting people on base at a super high clip. Crawford does hit lefties better than righties, but he still has a respectable .267 AVG/.346 OBP/.448 SLG. Also playing in Miller Park I think will help Crawford who quietly has 6 HR’s this year. He may be batting 6th in the lineup tonight, but I like the ability of guys like Pagan, Posey, and Belt to get on base for him against Garza giving him the chance to put up a good amount of points.

Value

Nick Ahmed – His numbers are not too impressive as a whole on the season, but against lefties he has done very well. Again a small sample size, but he is hitting .385 BA/ .500 OBP/.500 SLG against lefties, to go with the fact that as a whole the Diamonback hitters do better against lefties. Jaime Garcia only has one start this year so I am not a firm believer of him yet, so for an affordable price tag I like Ahmed tonight.

Third Basemen

Stud

Josh Donaldson – I really really really like Josh Donaldson tonight, and he might be my favorite overall play. As I explained earlier, John Danks fairs very poorly against right handed hitting. Against lefties he’s raking at a .444 AVG/.462 OBP/.778 SLG which are crazy numbers. Take this with the fact that they are playing in Toronto which is already a great hitters park. It wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Donaldson hit a HR tonight, and I believe even the bottom of the order guys can get on against Danks which will create plenty of big point spots.

Value

Evan Longoria – I know it may seem boring and redundant that I keep picking him, but I still really like him against left handed pitching. He should still be pretty affordable which is why after Donaldson he is my guy. J.A Happ has been alright this year, but his past track record has proven to me that he can’t be trusted throughout the whole year. A .375 AVG/.512 OBP/.594 against lefties for Longoria really makes me like him tonight if you are not going to go with the Blue Jays stack.

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Outfielders

Stud

Giancarlo Stanton – This is more of a gut pick to me because I have a good feeling that Stanton will go off despite what the stats might say. He has struggled a bit this year only hitting .217 against lefties with a .321 OBP. The thing that I really like is that, I think Dee Gordon will be getting on base tonight as I’ve stated, and I really don’t like Jeff Locke. Giancarlo only has 1 HR in 23 AB hitting against lefties, but with guys on base and a solid pitching matchup I feel that he could do some major damage.

Value

Chris Colabello – Colabello was awesome for Minnesota to begin the year last year, and seems to be on a similar hot spree with the Blue Jays. Against lefties this year he has a .421 AVG/.476 OBP/.789 SLG. He is going to be pretty cheap still as he doesn’t have an extremely high sample size but to be quite frank he has been dominating this year. He is up to batting 5th in the order which I like, and I could easily see Locke pitching around Bautista and Encarnacion leaving Colabello a lot of pitches to hit.

As always, be sure to read up on your strategy here.


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