Daily Domer May 30, 2015
Tyson Ross – Today is a weird day for pitching as there are some good pitchers going, but none of them really strike out batters. Kuechel has 49 K’s in 72 IP, Wacha has 35 K’s in 57 IP, and Ventura has 43 K’s in 54 IP. This is why today I like Tyson Ross the most. He has 69 K’s in 58 IP with a solid 3.84 ERA, and has only given up 58 hits so far. The problem with Ross is that he walks a ton of guys (30 so far this year) and only has 2 wins this year. Today he is pitching against the Pirates who have a decent offense, but have been prone to the strikeout so far this year. They have struck out 378 times, which is tied for the 11th most in the MLB so Tyson should have some success in that department. They also only have 118 BB’s this year which is 25th in the MLB, so while Ross may walk a lot of guys himself, the Pirates as a team don’t do it too often. Ross has actually pitched better on the road this year and has given up 12 ER in 23 IP at home which isn’t that great. The Pirates though hit better at home and their numbers across the board are worse on the road. The line for the game is at 7 runs which is the lowest on the slate all day, and if Ross can get the win today (-110 to win) then I think he will easily pass Kuechel, Wacha, Ventura, and Gonzalez.
Jeremy Hellickson – I’m usually not a very big fan of Mr. Hellickson, but today for his price, I think he could put up a solid game against the Brewers. The main reason for this is because I really do not like the Brewers offense, and Hellickson is going to come super cheaply. He has 36 K’s in 50.2 IP and the Brewers strike out a lot (405 times which is 4th most in the MLB). The Brewers may hit better at home, but the numbers are far from impressive (.234 AVG/.292 OBP/.382 SLG). They have hit more HR at Miller Park which isn’t surprising but still have only a .227 AVG and .287 OBP at home which is quite bad. Also Hellickson has actually pitched better on the road this year only giving up 11 ER in 24.2 IP which is actually a 4.01 ERA. There is a lot of risk to this pick, but for GPP’s I can see him being low owned and he has potential to put up a lot of points against a poor Brewers offense.
Buster Posey – Before last night it had been a while since Posey had done something big in a game. He had a 3 run HR last night and I like his chances for another good game today. Posey has great split numbers against righties, posting a line of .306 AVG/.382 OBP/.470 SLG with 7 HR in 134 AB. For a catcher, 8 HR this year is pretty solid and 1 roughly every 22 AB. He is going against Williams Perez who has okay numbers, but his splits show that he has been pretty lucky. Against right handed hitting, he has a .250 AVG/.364 OBP/.250 SLG line so people are getting on base against him and lefties are getting on at an even higher clip than righties so people like Aoki, Pagan, Crawford, and Belt also may have some success. Even if Posey can’t get a HR, I expect him to do some damage at the plate and backup last night’s game with another good one.
Yan Gomes – He has really struggled this year so far batting 4/30 this year and also being 1/11 against lefties. That’s a small sample size so I decided to look at the past 3 years to see how he hit against them. From 2012-2014, he had a .312 AVG/.349 OBP/.522 SLG against righties in 295 AB. He’s pretty affordable for a catcher, and has some great guys at the top of the lineup so if he’s hitting low in the order he should get extra at bats and maybe those guys can drive him in. He is going against the lefty Roenis Elias who against righties has a .261 AVG/.325 OBP/.443 SLG with 5 HR allowed in 115 AB. He has a 2.56 ERA so runs have been scarce against him, but the Indians have been putting some runs up in May. He’s a risk today, but if you want to run an Indians stack, Gomes as a third or fourth guy wouldn’t be the worst idea.
Mark Teixeira – Today, he is going against the righty Jesse Hahn who has been dominant against righties, but has struggled against righties. Lefties have posted a .311 AVG/.363 OBP/.388 SLG line against him compared to a .162 AVG/.214 OBP/.257 SLG line against righties. Teixeira has a higher OBP against lefties but hits for a better average (.250), higher SLG (.589) and has 10 HR in 112 AB against righties. The Yankees have a bunch of lefties in the top of their lineup (McCann, Headley, Gardner), so putting on guys for Mark is a recipe for great success. He has also put up better numbers across the board on the road vs. at home, so even if the Coliseum is a pitchers park, the success on the road is there. Again lots of good first basemen, but Teixeira is a bit cheaper than the big studs and could easily out-perform the studs today
David Ortiz – Reports are that he will be coming back to the lineup today which is music to my ears. Today he is going against the righty Chi-Chi Gonzalez who is making his first start of the year, and has struggled in the minor leagues this year. He has a 4.15 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and a 26:19 strikeout to walk ratio in the minors. Those numbers would be below average for a major league starter, so if he is putting those up in the minor leagues, I have little confidence in him. Then we get to Ortiz who can’t hit lefties, but can mash righties pretty well. He has a .276 AVG/.394 OBP/.495 SLG with 6 HR in 105 AB. The only downfall I can possibly see is that his numbers on the road are poor (.159 AVG/.237 OBP/.318 SLG) but he has 4 HR on the road vs. 2 at home. Ortiz should be pretty cheap today and definitely has the capability of doing some damage against the rookie Gonzalez.
Jose Altuve – I may be crazy for not picking Kipnis, but the lefty on lefty matchup for that price is a bit concerning. I haven’t picked Altuve much this year, but today that won’t be the case. He is a lefty masher at the top of the Astros order, and today I see a big day for him. He has an insane line of .421 AVG/.493 OBP/.544 SLG against lefties this year which is basically the equivalent of Kipnis vs. righties. He might only have 1 HR against lefties, but he has 15 SB on the year with 24 runs. Then we get to Quintana who has been really bad against right handed batting. They are hitting with a line of .318 AVG/ .371 OBP/.465 SLG against him, so while he may do well against lefties, that won’t work in his favor today. If you look at these two splits, this might be the most obvious play of the day, and I will be shocked if he doesn’t have a great game.
Logan Forsythe – Forsythe has been a pleasant surprise for the Rays offense which has struggled so far this year. He is going against the lefty Wei-Yin Chen, who has been solid overall, but much worse against righties. They are hitting with a line of .261 AVG/.313 OBP/.460 OBP against him with 7 HR allowed in 161 AB. To me, the 7 HR sticks out and shows that he is prone to giving up the long ball. Forsythe has also hit lefties pretty well at a .264 AVG/.350 OBP/.623 SLG with 4 HR in 53 AB. That’s a small sample size, but that’s a HR every 13 AB, and he usually hits in the clean-up spot against lefties which makes me like him for the money. Then if Chen gets taken out of the game, Forsythe actually hits for a better average and gets on base more against righties so that helps out a ton. He is going to be cheap, and with the Rays hitting lefties better as a team, I really like him for today’s slate.
Jhonny Peralta – Tulo really came through for me yesterday with 2 HR, and I today I like Peralta putting up a big game. Against righties this year, Peralta has hit them at a .331 AVG/.390 OBP/.514 SLG clip which is much better than his numbers against lefties. I really like the 2-4 part of that offense with Peralta, Holliday, and Carpenter all being really high OBP guys. He is going against one of the cheaper pitchers in Carlos Frias today who has been horrendous against lefties and not very good against righties either. He has a line of .263 AVG/.309 OBP/.368 SLG against righties which I will still gladly take any day of the week. With Wong and Carpenter being lefties, I expect them on base several times today (Frias allows a .438 OBP against lefties) and Holliday likely to get on base, points will be there for the taking today for Peralta.
Elvis Andrus – I know I picked him the other night to have a big game against the cheap lefty Rodriguez on the Red Sox and the whole offense stunk. I think today he redeems himself against the lefty Wade Miley who I consider an average pitcher. He hits lefties extremely well for a low price point today. With a line of .322 AVG/.385 OBP/.441 SLG against righties, I really like him today. His numbers are also across the board higher at home than on the road so that’s just another checkmark for the good. Miley against righties this year has a line of .252 AVG/.323 OBP/.406 SLG which is isn’t bad but it isn’t that great either. His home and road splits are pretty even as well so it’s not an advantage or disadvantage really. While Andrus may lack some power, he has speed, can get on base against lefties, and depending on where he is in the lineup can hopefully score some runs today.
Matt Carpenter – As I stated with Peralta, Frias has been really quite terrible against left handed hitters. They are hitting at a .386 AVG/.438 OBP/.545 SLG which to say the least is eye opening. Carpenter is a great hitter so I fully expect him to take advantage of that split right there. He has a .333 AVG/.421 OBP/.593 SLG line against righties this year which is great in its own right and has 6 HR in 123 AB’s. I really like the top 4 of that lineup today and wouldn’t mind a Cardinals stack at all for cash games or for GPP’s. There are a few plays I like at 3B, but Carpenter is no doubt the top play today
Evan Longoria – I keep picking him against left handed pitching and he just seems to be putting up better numbers against them. He has a line of .371 AVG/.500 OBP/.571 SLG against lefties with 2 HR in 35 AB’s. He is hitting much better at home vs. on the road this year which is kind of a bummer today, but with that line I will take that chance. He is also going against Wei-Yin Chen who is okay against righties, but not great. It looks as if Chen has been dealing with some injuries as of late as well, so I don’t know if that will hamper him, but it certainly can’t help. I expect Longoria to put up another great game against a lefty, and wouldn’t mind a Souza, Longoria, and Forsythe stack at all.
Giancarlo Stanton – He may only have 1 HR against lefties this year, but he is always a threat to go deep at any time. He has struggled a bit this year other than his 13 HR. He has a .231 AVG/.344 OBP/.500 SLG against lefties which for his standards isn’t that great. From 2012-2014 he has a line of .307 AVG/.409 OBP/.627 SLG against them, so I expect all of his numbers to come up from where they are this year. Then there is Mr. Niese who has a line of .316 AVG/.369 OBP/.491 SLG allowed against right handed hitting which plays into Giancarlo’s hands. I don’t really like the Marlins offense as a whole, but I can see him having a great game.
Norichika Aoki – He is a guy that not very many people talk about, but has been a solid player the last few years. Hitting leadoff certainly helps him, and with some good hitters behind it makes him an attractive play. Against righties he has a line of .324 AVG/.390 OBP/.439 SLG which is really good, and while he may not provide a ton of power (2 HR), he gets on base enough to make it worth it. Williams Perez does not scare me at all, and against left handed pitching he has allowed a .375 AVG/.407 OBP/.542 SLG line which speaks for itself. I like a lot of the Giants guys today, and for a low price point, Aoki should produce some points.
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