Daily Domer 5-28-2015
Corey Kluber – This for me is a pretty easy pick as Kluber has been scorching hot, and has a good matchup against the Mariners offense. He has 83 K’s in 69 IP while only allowing 66 hits and 12 walks. In his last 4 starts he has 44 K’s in 30.2 IP and his ERA has gone from 5.04 to 3.49. He has also pitched over 8 innings 4 times this year already which really improves his upside as he will have more chances to strike guys out. Then we get to the Mariners offense which really struggles against righties (.232 AVG/.295 OBP/.389 SLG line). They sit 16th with 343 strikeouts which isn’t horrible, but shows that they are definitely capable of striking out (12 times against Archer last night). The only thing that even slightly worries me is James Paxton is pitching for the Mariners who has won his last 3 starts and the Indians hit righties much better than they hit lefties. I still believe that the top of that order with Brantley, Kipnis, and Santana can produce some runs and will hopefully not leave Kluber out to dry. Vegas has the line at 6.5 runs tomorrow, so they obviously see a low scoring game as well and they have the Indians at -132 so they are expected to get the win. If Kluber can get that run support I fully expect him to get the win and keep rolling on this insane hot spree that has lasted a few weeks now.
Chris Heston – The Giants always seem to find a way to develop pitchers and have them turn into quality guys. Heston is a guy who fits this mold, and someone who I like could be a good value GPP pick today. Heston has 43 K’s in 54 IP this year and he only had 4 in his last two starts combined (7.2 IP), so the ratio was a bit higher before those two starts. He has at least 5 K’s in 5 starts this year so for a guy at his price that is definitely reasonable. Once again, another thing I like is his ability to pitch somewhat deep into games. He has at least 6 IP at least 5 times as well and has a complete game this year, so the potential for that is definitely there. The Braves offense really doesn’t strikeout (29th most), but they only have 182 runs which is 20th in the league and are tied for a league worst 26 Home Runs this year. This means that they will have to string some hits together or hope that Heston is wild and is going to be walking guys. Like I said previously, Heston has had back to back bad starts (raising his ERA from the mid 2’s to 4.33), he has only allowed 8 ER in 26 IP at home which is why I am willing to take the chance. The line tomorrow is also at 6.5 so they don’t expect many runs to be scored with Shelby Miller going for the Braves. They are favored to win at -152 and with some good left handed hitters and Posey, hopefully they can get a few across and get Heston that victory.
Brian McCann – While I wouldn’t mind Posey either due to his numbers against righties, I like McCann more due to the pitching matchup that he has and his little hot streak that’s gone on for the last few games. He is going against Kendall Gravemen who hasn’t been very good this year giving up 27 hits in 22 IP and rocking a 6.03 ERA. He has really had problems against left handed hitters as they are posting a .319 AVG/.431 OBP/.489 SLG which obviously plays right into McCann. He has hits in 6 of his last 7 games including home runs in the last 2. McCann has struggled against lefties, but against righties he has a respectable .253 AVG/.313 OBP/.455 SLG line with 4 of his HR coming against them as well. The only downside I see to him, is the fact that he hits much better at home than on the road (.188 AVG and .236 OBP). Even with those numbers, Gravemen gives up equally bad numbers to lefties so I will be going with McCann along with some other Yankee hitters, and I expect them to do well.
James McCann – For my value pick, I have to go with the other McCann. James McCann is going to be available for pretty cheap tomorrow, but could be a really solid play tomorrow. He is going against the lefty C.J. Wilson who has been pretty good this year for the Angels, but can still be hit. Against lefties this year, McCann has a split of .304 AVG/.360 OBP/.652 SLG with 2 HR in 23 AB which for a low priced catcher is great. Then you look at his numbers on the road compared to at home and it makes you like him even more. He has a .341 AVG/.386 OBP/.512 SLG line on the road this year, so combining these numbers with his numbers against lefties this makes it almost a no brainer. Wilson does pitch well against lefties, but righties hit him decently (.264 AVG/.314 OBP/.365 SLG). There is no reason for Wilson to scare me off of McCann tomorrow with the splits I listed and will be looking forward to a great night out of him.
Mark Teixiera – Teixiera has had an outstanding year so far, and today should be much of the same. Like Brian McCann, he going against Kendall Gravemen who has struggled against lefties. Teixiera always has a leg up on the pitching as he is a switch hitter which is a good thing when it comes to the bullpen as well. Against righties this year, he has a .257 AVG/.341 OBP/ .619 SLG line and has 10 HR in 105 AB which is incredible. Some may think that it is the fact that he plays in Yankee Stadium, but he actually has a higher OBP on the road and has 7 of his HR on the road as well. I can see this being a popular stack tomorrow, but if they do as well as I think they can, you won’t regret picking them at all.
Billy Butler – Butler, along with the a lot of the Athletics roster have been disappointing this year. For my first basemen, I usually like guys with some power, but for Butler’s price I will make an exception. He is going against CC Sabathia who is starting to break down with age and wear and tear. Against lefties in general, Butler has put up a solid line of .278 AVG/.395 OBP/.444 SLG which is way better than his line against righties. He also has 2 HR in 36 AB against lefties vs. 2 HR in 151 AB against righties. Getting back to Sabathia, he does do really well vs. lefties, but righties really rake him (.345 AVG/.379 OBP/.529 SLG line). He does pitch a little better on the road but he is still allowing a .275 average on the road. With Butler being so cheap for a 1B he provides a ton of upside with this great matchup.
Ben Zobrist – Ben Zobrist is a great player, and the A’s really missed him when he was hurt for the last month. He doesn’t really excel at anything, but he does everything pretty well. He gets on base at a high clip, has some pop in his bat, and can steal the occasional base. Lots of people will probably pick Kipnis today which isn’t bad, but he is very pedestrian against left handed pitching and has gotten expensive for that matchup. Zobrist on the other hand, has a good matchup against Sabathia like Billy Butler. Zobrist hits lefties pretty well at a .353 AVG/.421 OBP/.412 SLG clip granted that is only in 21 AB. From 2012-2014 though he averaged a .295 AVG/.361 OBP/.425 SLG line which is still pretty good numbers against lefties. The rust factor is potentially there, but he has hits in his first two games back from injury so I have no problem putting him into lineups tonight.
Neil Walker – The pirates just keep winning and hopefully that can continue today. Walker has been a consistently good player the last few years and has become one of the better second basemen in my opinion. He has a lot of power for a second basemen even if he hasn’t shown it so far this year (3 HR). Tonight, he is going against Ian Kennedy which is a really good matchup with Kennedy’s struggles this year so far (37 hits and 12 walks in 35 innings with a 6.11 ERA). Kennedy has also pitched much worse at Petco, giving up 16 ER in 17.2 IP and giving up 6 HR at home as well. Walker has struggled against lefties this year but not righties. He is hitting at a .268 AVG/.325 OBP/.420 SLG clip against them and has all 3 of his HR against righties. The pitcher’s park is not going to push away from Walker tonight, with Kennedy’s struggles there and Walkers solid numbers against righties.
Jung Ho-Kang – Shortstop is a relatively weak position; especially tonight. Kang is going to be one of the more expensive ones, but I still feel he is the top play. He has the favorable matchup against Kennedy just like Walker and has been quite hot as of late (9 game hitting streak). He hits lefties at a great clip, but still has a .303 AVG/.357 OBP/.395 SLG against righties which I will gladly take. The only thing is that SLG% where he only has 1 HR in 96 AB against righties this year. Like I said yesterday, Kang has slowly moved up the lineup (batted 5th yesterday) which means he can provide even more upside. I really believe guys like Walker, McCutchen, and Marte will be able to get on base, and will give Kang a chance to put up even more points.
Elvis Andrus – Andrus has struggled offensively this year, but with a good matchup tonight, he should definitely be able to hit his value at such a low price point. He is going against the lefty Eduardo Rodriguez who is one of the cheapest pitchers on the slate tonight. Andrus has a .333 AVG/.387 OBP/.456 SLG which is really good in all actuality. When you look at his numbers as a whole they are really poor which is why looking at splits is always very important. Also, he hits much better at home with a .254 AVG/.329 OBP/.338 SLG line. He doesn’t offer a lot of power, but he has some speed on the base paths so stolen bases are a possibility, and hopefully getting into scoring position and scoring some runs.
Adrian Beltre – Beltre is easily going to be my top third basemen pick tonight and one of my favorite plays for any position. He has a really good matchup at a very affordable price tag. He is also going against lefty Eduardo Rodriguez who has had decent minor league numbers this year, but I am willing to take my chances here with Beltre. He hits lefties at a .281 AVG/.328 OBP/.509 SLG with 3 HR in 57 AB. He only has 3 HR in 133 AB against righties, so he has some more pop against lefties which we obviously like. From 2012-2014 Beltre hit lefties at a .313 AVG/.385 OBP/.501 SLG clip so his numbers are usually even better against lefties. He has struggled a bit this year, but this makes him affordable tonight and one of the best plays.
Chase Headley – I know it might be kind of boring seeing another Yankees player on the list, but he has been posting up good numbers against righties this year and that righty hasn’t been good this year. Against righties this year, Headley has a .275 AVG/.347 OBP/.422 SLG with 4 HR. Like Teixiera, Headley actually hits better away from Yankee Stadium as well with a .267 AVG/.319 OBP/.407 SLG. Now he has more HR at home which isn’t too surprising, he is getting more hits and getting on base more on the road. This is fine to me because I fully expect there to be guys on base today against Gravemen. While I like Beltre a little more than Headley today, the Yankees stack is still something I will roster in some of my GPP and cash game teams.
Mike Trout – Mike Trout is the man, and you really can’t go wrong picking him any night. Harper is off to best start this year, but he is still the best player in my opinion. He does everything from a DFS perspective, which makes him a good play every day. He can hit for power, average, has great speed when he’s on base, and while not a DFS stat, is amazing defensively. Today, he is going against Buck Farmer who has been great in the minor leagues this year but struggled in spring training against major league hitters (5.19 ERA). Against righties this year, Trout has a .290 AVG/.377 OBP/.543 SLG with 9 HR in 138 AB. He does have slightly better power numbers on the road, but he does get on base more often at home (.398) which could definitely lead to some stolen bases. He is going to be expensive tonight, but if there is a player I’m going to save up for, Trout is the one
Raburn should be back in the lineup today as they are going against the lefty James Paxton. Raburn is the platoon guy against lefties and for good reason. He smashes them at a .356 AVG/.418 OBP/.627 SLG while he has 0’s across the board against righties in 9 AB. Paxton actually has really struggled against lefties this year allowing a .375 AVG and a .474 OBP while having much better numbers against righties. I think this plays into Raburn’s hands beautifully because this means that Santana, Kipnis, and Brantley are able to get on base for him. He is also going to be pretty cheap because he has a somewhat small sample size this year. Picking him will allow you to spend elsewhere on say a guy like Mike Trout. His numbers against lefties are just too good to pass up for his price tag and will be having him in several lineups today.
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